Thailand: Cry havoc

By Tom Plate

Even viewing the spectacle from afar (chin sunk in open palms, heart sagging too), it is utterly brutal on the emotions to observe an otherwise wondrous people and culture tearing itself in two. And that would be Thailand today.


For no one who has ever been treated to the extraordinary charm and hospitality of the Thai people could be blamed for practically breaking into tears over the sight of the Tiananmen Square type government crackdown this weekend. The sadness before us is the terrifying transformation of the land of the smiles (as Thailand is often called) into the frowns 
of the clowns.

Clowns, because the responsible people of Thailand, on both sides, surely know better than to have let it come to this. Even if the eventual end point of this prolonged convulsion is a properly politically integrated Thailand (think convulsive US Civil War), the short-term cost will be huge. Forget about tourism  —  few will risk a visit except journalists and returning family; forget about foreign investment  — the prerequisite for which is always a heartless rock-bottom political stability. Until recently, in fact, Thailand offered that in considerable abundance. The politics of the country revolved around the ritual of the monarchy. The people’s perception of the King and his Court as the nation’s benevolent if unassertive hub minimised the importance of the politicians and seemed to suffuse the entire political culture with a kind of saffron softness.

That began to change with the so-called coup that really wasn’t a coup. A democratically elected parliamentary government was ousted by military force. This was in 2006, the result of which was to transport the popular-with-the-people Thaksin Shinawatra into exile. The King, who had been ruling the country from behind the throne anyhow, was still the King. This is why it was an odd kind of superficial coup.

You have undoubtedly heard many bad things about the fleeing Thaksin. That the multi-billionaire telecom business mogul was corrupt. Or that he violated the law. Or was a demagogue. Or sat down on the press like an elephant. Or evaded taxes. Indeed, by the time he fled, he had been accused of almost everything. Some of the above had some truth to it, to be sure. But it is also a fact that not only was Thaksin elected in 2001 via a landslide, but also that his overwhelming reelection in 2005 came amid the highest voter turnout in Thai history. Why? For one thing, the Thaksin government reduced rural poverty by 50 per cent while in office and put together a universal health care programme for the first time in the 
country’s existence. But he was tough on political enemies and he was nails-hard on drug traffickers, for whom the severe Lee-Kuan-Yew-type policy in Singapore seemed to this Thai-born self-made man only sensible if you wanted to be effective.

And on the international stage, Thailand seemed to have new life, especially under the sauve and warm foreign ministry of Kantathi Suphamongkhon, the country’s 39th foreign minister  —  and perhaps the best ever. But in zero-sum democracies where someone’s gain is perceived as another’s loss, Thaksin seemed too much for the Crown, and its associated cronies. They were, generally speaking, the coddled urban elite for whom the country’s locked-in rural poverty was in effect their sub-prime mortgage free-ride to riches. But the sleepy, sweet, quiet, ever-smiling rural masses woke up. And, rightly, the elites blamed Thaksin for that. And so, roughly speaking, this is where the bloody battles 
are now drawn.

What is the US interest in this impending civil war? Years ago, before the fall of the Iron Curtain, Thailand was a lynchpin against the communism-spread threat, whether of the Vietnamese, Chinese, Cambodian or Soviet kind. But when that urgency suddenly evaporated, the country’s profile on the US State Department radar screen shrunk. Such de-prioritisation is a terrible miscalculation. The American ambassador in Bangkok is a career US Foreign Service officer. This is a good thing: it means he’s not ignorant of the country to which he has been assigned, as is the case with so many of our inglorious, ugly American political appointments. But his fluency in Korean and Vietnamese, of which Ambassador Eric G. John is rightly proud, will however be of little help with the average Thai. And some of his preliminary comments seemed to tilt against the “Red” shirt democracy protestors. It might be better then were Ambassador John to say nothing at all than to suggest God Save the King at a time like this.

The cleavage between the Crown and the people has grown wider than ever. It is time for a United Nations supervised cease-fire, and a UN supervised countrywide election. Already, at this writing, casualties are mounting exponentially. This is nothing to smile about. A great country and lovely people are burning. Indeed, if it weren’t for one’s appreciation of the otherwise live-and-let-live talent of the Thai people, you’d be tempted to worry that “The Land of the Smiles” is veering in the direction of a failed state.

Columnist and veteran journalist Tom Plate is writing a trilogy of books called “Giants of Asia.”

Originally published April 12, 2010 in the Khaleej Times.