On the menu: Asian fusion food, conversation

By Tom Plate

At a recent dinner party, the fare was Californian fusion, but the killer item on the menu was the serious table talk about Asia.

So much food for thought was offered that, when the evening was over, few had much of an appetite for chocolate cake! For what started as an evening of Asian fusion, more or less ended in consensus about Asian confusion.

Many Asian economies are surging, especially compared to the United States. According to estimates or projections by Themes Investment Management, the red-hot Asia-based house headed by former Goldman Sachs Asia chairman Kenneth Courtis, China, at more than 9 percent growth, again led the pack last year. India, not too shabbily, crossed the growth finish line at more than 6 percent. Vietnam, the socialist republic with a reforming economy, hit the 5 percent growth mark. Even Indonesia, crawling its way through the developmental state of democracy, looks to have achieved 4 percent growth. These are numbers to drool over. The U.S. limped in last year at about minus 2.6 percent.


Investment-guru Courtis explains what is going on: "The global crisis has accelerated the shift to Asia. The magnitude and power of the shift result from the combination of the law of large numbers and the magic of compounding at high rates of expansion. The shift is occurring across a vast front and is now a major factor in every aspect of the global economy."

To be sure, there's still trouble in the paradise of the Orient. Japan's growth was at a negative 6 percent; Taiwan's was almost as bad. What's more, the worldwide recession apparently has accentuated the different directions of Japan and China. That insight provided the most upsetting moment of the night.

The guests around the dining table were glum at the thought of an authoritarian political system dramatically topping a parliamentary one like Japan. It seemed unfair and arguably ominous, as if there would be pointed implications for governance in the 21st century.

But the dinner party of Japanese diplomats, academics, Japanese-Americans and scholars (plus one journalist, who shall go nameless) was far from ready to declare authoritarianism the winner in the East Asian economic development race. While China's growth achievements continually impress, questions remain about its political maturity.

The unseemly spat with Google over whether e-mail and other accounts should remain immune to the prying eyes of government was a reminder that China has many problems left to sort out internally. And everyone knows that the Chinese people have paid a heavy price for the economic upsurge in the form of a political system that offers more intimidation than reasoning to keep the lid clamped down tightly.

At the same time, Japan's political system itself seemed un-inspirational, to say the least. The new government, led by the Democratic Party of Japan, is off to a terrible start. Corruption charges penetrate the party's inner circle. The current prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, hasn't impressed anyone, so far at least, as the leader likely to get Japan moving again.

But rays of hope filtered across the table nonetheless. One came from the amazing scholarly work of Professor Yusaku Horiuchi of Australian National University. He said that recent electoral reform consolidations in Japanese municipalities may have been a profound hidden factor behind the recent historic victory of the DJP over the long-governing Liberal Democratic Party. This electoral transformation raises the possibility that Japan may be evolving, structurally, into a genuine two-party system that will bring vigor, challenge and self-correcting mechanisms to America's leading ally in Asia.

One roots no more for Japan to continue to slide than for China to suddenly implode. Asian political stability is a prerequisite if the region is to continue to rise. The Chinese economic story is a very good one, but many chapters remain to be written in the history book of this modern-age ancient nation. And counting Japan out would not seem to be a wise bet. The two need to grow in a healthy way together. It's hard to see how Asia will become more stable if the disparity between Japan and China continues to lengthen. That thought left the dinner guests with much to chew on.

Tom Plate teaches Asian politics and media at UCLA.

Originally published February 3, 2010 in the Pocono Record.